Bush Vs. Trump Unlikely to Help Establishment Alternatives Kasich and Rubio

The gloves are off!

Donald Trump hits Jeb Bush with this:

This is no "act of love" as Jeb Bush said…

A video posted by Donald J. Trump (@realdonaldtrump) on

Then Bush hits back with this:

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Then Trump cam back with this:

No more Clintons or Bushes!

A video posted by Donald J. Trump (@realdonaldtrump) on

If Bush succeeds in driving down Trump’s numbers, where does that support go?

Because it’s not a two-person race, likely to a candidate who is not involved in the fray as opposed to Bush.

This suggests that the establishment alternatives to Bush, John Kasich and Marco Rubio, could benefit from any erosion in Trump’s support.  But I don’t think that will happen.

It’s not just Trump who is polling ahead of the establishment candidates, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina are as well.  What Trump, Carsona and Fiorina all have in common is that they are political outsiders.

So, to the extent that Bush succeeds in driving Trump’s numbers down, that support likely goes to outsiders Carson and Fiorina.

The Question Voters in Manchester Need to Ask

There is no question that Democrats will retain comfortable majorities on Manchester’s Board of Mayor and Aldermen and Board of School Committee.  As I posted here, the Manchester GOP didn’t even bother to run candidates in key races.

So the question for the voters in Manchester is: do you want a Mayor who will act as a check and balance to the Democratic majorities on the Board of Mayor and Aldermen and Board of School Committee, or do you want a Mayor who essentially will be part of the Democratic majorities? Continue reading The Question Voters in Manchester Need to Ask

On Heroin, Time for Governor and “Statehouse Leaders” to Put Up or Shut Up

The latest salvo in the budget stalemate between Governor Hassan and the GOP legislature is an op-ed by GOP State Senator Jeanie Forrester.  Forrester charges that Hassan’s veto of the budget has left the State “in a holding pattern” with respect to combatting heroin addicition: Continue reading On Heroin, Time for Governor and “Statehouse Leaders” to Put Up or Shut Up

GOP Statehouse Leaders Set to Hand Governor Hassan Another Victory on Budget

The leadership of the House and Senate have scheduled votes to attempt to override Governor’s Hassan veto of the budget for September 16th.  The vote is going to fail because Republicans do not hold anywhere near the two-thirds required to override a veto in either chamber.

So why are they holding a budget override vote?  The tactic makes no sense.   Continue reading GOP Statehouse Leaders Set to Hand Governor Hassan Another Victory on Budget

Donald Trump and the Art of the Town Hall

The thing to understand about “town halls” and the New Hampshire Presidential primary is that the purpose of town halls is not to meet voters and answer their questions.  The purpose is to get covered by the press.

Nearly one-quarter of a million people voted in the New Hampshire primary in 2012:

2012.GOP.Prez.Primary.NH.NYT

At an average attendance of 100, a candidate would have to do 2,500 town halls to connect with these many voters.  Assuming one hour for a town hall, it would take 104 days, and that’s assuming 24 hours days, to hold that many town halls.  Assuming an eight hour day, 312 days.  So a candidate would have to start ten months out and do town halls all day every day in New Hampshire, in order to meet all the primary voters.

That doesn’t happen.  Senator John McCain, whose name has become synonymous with two halls, did a little over 100 town halls before the 2008 New Hampshire primary.  Continue reading Donald Trump and the Art of the Town Hall

Comparison of Donald Trump to Herman Cain (or Any of 2012’s Flavors of the Month) Off-Base

Some in the GOP establishment and the media have compared Donald Trump’s current frontrunner status in the 2016 GOP Presidential primary to 2012 when various candidates took turns as the frontrunner before Mitt Romney wrapped up the nomination in April, 2012.

This morning, Andrew Sorkin on Squawk Box admonished Joe Kernen that Herman Cain was leading in the polls back in 2011, suggesting that Trump’s position will be as ephemeral as Cain’s.  Actually, it was Rick Perry leading the polls in late August, 2011.  The Cain boomlet didn’t occur until October, 2011: Continue reading Comparison of Donald Trump to Herman Cain (or Any of 2012’s Flavors of the Month) Off-Base

As Summer of Trump Becomes Autumn of Trump, Question Becomes – Should Trump Go Outsider or Establishment with Veep

A new Quinnipiac poll has Donald trump heading into Labor Day, the start of fall, with 28 percent.  Looks like the Summer of Trump is going to be followed by the Autumn of Trump (no doubt to the chagrin of many “operatives” and “pundits” who had been hoping to say “Fall of Trump”): Continue reading As Summer of Trump Becomes Autumn of Trump, Question Becomes – Should Trump Go Outsider or Establishment with Veep

Do Trump’s Poll Numbers Suggest Ayotte Can be Beaten in a Primary?

Here is today’s Real Clear Politics average for New Hampshire’s Presidential primary:

Poll.NH.Prez.RCP.avg.26AUG15

The Public Policy Poll (a Democrat polling outfit, but still rated a solid B- by FiveThirtyEight) shows Donald Trump lapping the field.  At 35 percent, he has over three times the support of his nearest competitor, John Kasich (11 percent).

What’s also striking about the PPP poll is that the “outsiders,” Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, are the choice of 51 percent.

I see these numbers, which are consistent with numbers in other States and in national polls, as a vote of “no-confidence” in the GOP establishment.

That got me thinking about how Senator Kelly Ayotte would fare in a primary where a majority of the voters are inclined to vote “no confidence” in the establishment. Continue reading Do Trump’s Poll Numbers Suggest Ayotte Can be Beaten in a Primary?