According to State Rep Steve Vaillancourt, the deficit for fiscal year 2010, which is not the same as calendar year 2010 looks to be between $76 and $92 million. Steve’s analysis follows:
According the January revenue report issued by the Department of Administrative Services, the state is $40.6 million short for the first seven months of the year
$1003.0 million was projected
$962.4 million was received
$40.6 million short is 4.05 percent
Not insignificantly, that 4 percent range has been rather consistent throughout the year.
So we most likely can project the 4.05 percent for the year to gain an indication of what we’re likely to be short. Here’s what we get.
Year revenues planned–$22591. million times 4.05 percent = $91.5 million.
If you were to back out $363 million (the amount the state is expected to receive in April for statewide property taxes), the plan for the year is $1891 million.
$1891.0 times 4.05 percent = $76.6 million
More than half the shortfall comes from two sources, rooms and meals taxes and interest and dividends taxes.
Rooms and meal tax – down 9.2 percent—down $14.7 million ($144.3 vs. $159.0 expected for seven months). This extrapolates to a $23.1 million shortfall for the year.
Interest and dividends tax—down 20.4%!—down $9.7 million ($38.8 million vs. $48.5 expected with a whopping $40.8 million expected in April). This extrapolates to $23.9 million shortfall for the year.
Business taxes—down “only” 2.8 percent–$6.6 million ($226.1 vs. $232.7 expected). Most of these taxes come due in March and April, so this is truly the wild card, but extrapolation of current numbers yields a $14.3 million shortfall for the year.
Tobacco tax—is the only revenue source exceeding plan. Up 4.9 percent—up $7.1 million ($145.7 vs. $138.6 expected). Extrapolation of +$10.6 million.
Rep. Steve Vaillancourt, Hills. 15
Tags: Steve Vaillancourt