Bannon’s Correct: Trump Did Win New Hampshire (When You Subtract the Drive-By Votes)

Former White House chief strategist and current head of Breitbart News Steve Bannon created a firestorm recently when he spoke to a conservative group, the 603 Alliance, in Manchester, New Hampshire and stated that he believed that President Trump actually won New Hampshire:

“I believe strongly, and I’m prepared to put my money where my mouth is, that we won the state of New Hampshire,” he said.

I did not attend the event, but the local television station, WMUR, reported that Bannon reasoned as follows:

“There were 6,540 same-day registers here that had to get a (New Hampshire) drivers license by Jan. 7, 2017,” Bannon said. “The election integrity commission, on Aug. 30 — 10 months afterwards — said only 1,014 of the 6,540 had actually obtained a New Hampshire drivers’ license, and 5,526 individuals never obtained anything.”

… 

Bannon said that if one assumes that one-third of those voters were college student who were legally entitled to vote in the state, “You’ve still got 3,600 votes that really haven’t been accounted for.”

These 3,600 “unaccounted” votes materially exceed Hillary Clinton’s 2,736 vote margin: 

Thus, according to Bannon, voters who were not legally entitled to vote in New Hampshire tipped the State to Hillary.

The problem with Bannon’s reasoning is that it is more sound to assume that most of the same-day registrants who did not obtain a driver’s license were college students.  From an article by Kevin Landrigan:

Last February, [Secretary of State Bill} Gardner reported about 5,900 “new” voters — those not on the pre-election checklist — who cast ballots last November presented out-of-state driver’s licenses at the polls. Among this group, nearly two-thirds of them voted in college towns: Durham (1,608); Hanover (774); Keene (624); and Plymouth (397).

Assuming that these voters were college students, however, merely means that Bannon was technically wrong in claiming that Hillary won New Hampshire based on illegal votes.  It does not mean that a majority of New Hampshire residents voted for Hillary over Trump.

To the contrary, it cannot be seriously disputed that Trump won New Hampshire when the votes of out-of-State, or “drive-by” voters, are backed out.  More specifically, by not obtaining a New Hampshire driver’s license after voting, these college students manifested an intent NOT to be residents of New Hampshire and so had no business voting here.

In response to my assertion that college students who choose to remain residents of their home-States should not be voting in New Hampshire, the Democrats will say that LEGALLY one does not have to be a resident of New Hampshire to vote in New Hampshire.  That technically is true.  As part of its results-oriented election-law jurisprudence, the New Hampshire Supreme Court has created a special voting status for college students where they can vote in either their home-States or in New Hampshire.

But that does not mean such out-of-State college students should be allowed to vote in New Hampshire.  All that means is that the New Hampshire Supreme Court has made voter-fraud legal in New Hampshire.

As I have explained in several posts, most recently this one, it cannot be seriously disputed that drive-by –out-of-State– voters tipped the 2016 election to both Hillary Clinton and Maggie Hassan.  For the reader’s ease of reference, I will run through the numbers here.

Lets’ start with the vote tally:So Hillary won by 2,736 votes, while Maggie Hassan won by only 1,017 votes.

From the same article by Kevin Landrigan which I referenced above:

A new report on the 2016 election found nearly 1,100 people who cast ballots here in New Hampshire were either under investigation for voting in more than one place or signed affidavits with addresses that may no longer be valid, House Speaker Shawn Jasper, R-Hudson disclosed Thursday.

This total of questioned voters — 1,094 — is greater than the 1,017-vote margin by which Democrat Maggie Hassan won her U.S. Senate seat over incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte on Nov. 8.

Here is the breakdown of the 1,094 questionable votes:

• Voting twice: 196 voters. New Hampshire and other state prosecutors are investigating this number who gave the same name and the same date of birth and voted here and in at least one other state.

• Qualified affidavits: 440 voters. Nearly all of these 764 citizens signed an affidavit in order to vote on Election Day because they didn’t have or did not want to present a voter ID card prior to casting a ballot. Among this group, 377 did not return a postcard sent to verify their address and the post office reported another 63 postcards could not be delivered to the address given.

• Domicile affidavits: 458 voters. These were people who registered to vote and signed an affidavit attesting the address they gave was accurate. There were 6,033 domicile affidavits and of those, 458 were reported as undeliverable to the address that had been given.

It is reasonable to assume that the vast majority of these 1,094 phantom voters were out-of-Staters who voted Democrat because the New Hampshire Democrat Party has staunchly opposed all efforts to require photo-identification for voting and has staunchly sharing voter information with other States in order to prevent voting in more than one State,

So without even counting the votes of out-of-State college students, we can say that it is likely Maggie Hassan was elected Senator by out-of-State voters.

It is also reasonable to assume that the vast majority of the 5,313 voters who used out-of-State driver’s licenses to vote in New Hampshire in 2016 and then did not subsequently obtain New Hampshire driver’s licenses or register their motor-vehicles in New Hampshire were out-of-State college students who voted Democrat because the New Hampshire Democrat Party has staunchly opposed all efforts to strengthen the definition of  domicile to prevent out-of-State college students from voting in New Hampshire.

In sum, it is reasonable to assume that when drive-by votes are backed out and only the votes of New Hampshire residents counted, Trump likely defeated Clinton by around 3,000 votes.

A Flawed Analysis of New Hampshire’s Senate Race

Jason Sorens, the creator of the Free State Project, recently blogged that Yes, Aaron Day Probably Cost Kelly Ayotte Re-Election.  According to Sorens:

Now, Kelly Ayotte lost by 1,000 votes, just over 0.1 percentage points. My estimates suggest that without Aaron Day in the race, Kelly Ayotte would have won her race by about 15,000 votes, similar to Republican Chris Sununu’s margin of victory in the governor’s race.

So here are the results of the Senate race and the Governor’s race: Continue reading