Quick Takeaways from the Special Election in State Senate District 16

Unofficial results have Democrat Kevin Cavanaugh defeating Republican David Boutin by a very comfortable margin of 55% to 45% in the Special Election for State Senate District 16.

The result should serve as a wake-up call to the NH GOP because Boutin held the seat from 2010 to 2016 and Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton essentially battled to a draw in 2016, with Clinton eking out a 15,150 to 15,040 win.

The difference in performance between Trump and Boutin is even more striking because Trump had to contend with hordes of out-of-State college students from Southern New Hampshire University and Saint Anselm voting in his election, while Boutin had the benefit of many of these students being home for summer break.

So why did Boutin so underperform Trump? Continue reading

BREAKING NEWS: Democrats Win Special Election in State Senate District 16

Yes, I know the election is not until July 25th.  And, actually, I expect the candidate running as a Republican, former State Senator David Boutin, to come out on top.  But while the Democrats may lose this particular battle, they have won the war.  More specifically, the Republican Party in New Hampshire has moved so far to the left that the Concord Monitor has endorsed Boutin.

In other words, the political divide in New Hampshire is no longer about small government versus big government, which I believe is the essence of the conservative versus liberal divide.  It’s about who can run big government better. Continue reading



  1. JEANNE SHAHEEN was reelected to the United States Senate when Democrat incumbents nearly everywhere else (Virginia is the other exception) lost, and she beat a credible opponent. But Shaheen does not top our list or even come in second because she needed to outspend Scott Brown by $7.2 million (a nearly two to one margin) to do so, the press was solidly in her corner, and she had the benefit of the State Democrat Party’s “ground game,” which by all accounts is as far ahead the State Republican Party’s as an F-22 is to a Sopwitch Camel.
  1. Whatever you think of SHAWN JASPER’s tactics, he got himself elected Speaker. So far he seems to be enjoying himself, despite the ongoing skirmishing with Bill O’Brien and his supporters. Or maybe because of the ongoing skirmishing? Perhaps Jasper has taken to heart the reputed words Pope Leo X, the Medici Pope, upon his election, “Since God has given us the papacy, let us enjoy it.” It was Leo’s sale of indulgences to finance St. Peter’s that led to Martin Luther breaking from Rome. Will Japser create a similar split in the New Hampshire Republican Party?

Continue reading